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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Williams College-0.60+6.91vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.91+0.27vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.75+1.31vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College-0.06+2.40vs Predicted
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5Florida Institute of Technology-0.53+2.66vs Predicted
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6Princeton University-0.15+0.63vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan0.05-1.06vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.01-1.86vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.99-0.29vs Predicted
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10Washington College-0.80-1.72vs Predicted
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11Columbia University0.45-5.80vs Predicted
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12University of Texas-0.86-3.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.91Williams College-0.600.0%1st Place
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2.27Webb Institute1.910.4%1st Place
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4.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.750.1%1st Place
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6.4SUNY Maritime College-0.060.1%1st Place
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7.66Florida Institute of Technology-0.530.0%1st Place
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6.63Princeton University-0.150.0%1st Place
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5.94University of Michigan0.050.1%1st Place
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6.14Fordham University0.010.1%1st Place
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8.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.990.0%1st Place
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8.28Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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5.2Columbia University0.450.1%1st Place
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8.55University of Texas-0.860.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Nusbaum | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 12.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 40.3% | 25.9% | 15.4% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Carson | 13.2% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Luke Barker | 5.2% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% |
| Sofia Scarpa | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 12.2% |
| Advik Eswaran | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 4.6% |
| Samuel Stephens | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| Robert Upton | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% |
| Aubrey Walton | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 22.4% |
| Imogene Nuss | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 17.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 8.4% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Oliver Fenner | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 20.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.