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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.91+1.25vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.75+2.41vs Predicted
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3Williams College-0.60+4.86vs Predicted
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4University of Michigan0.05+2.16vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.01+1.18vs Predicted
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6Florida Institute of Technology-0.53+1.69vs Predicted
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7Princeton University-0.15-0.44vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.06-1.70vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.45-4.10vs Predicted
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10University of Texas-0.86-1.59vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.99-2.12vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.80-3.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.25Webb Institute1.910.4%1st Place
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4.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.750.1%1st Place
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7.86Williams College-0.600.0%1st Place
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6.16University of Michigan0.050.1%1st Place
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6.18Fordham University0.010.1%1st Place
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7.69Florida Institute of Technology-0.530.0%1st Place
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6.56Princeton University-0.150.1%1st Place
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6.3SUNY Maritime College-0.060.1%1st Place
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4.9Columbia University0.450.1%1st Place
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8.41University of Texas-0.860.0%1st Place
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8.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.990.0%1st Place
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8.41Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 41.0% | 25.2% | 16.8% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Carson | 11.6% | 16.3% | 13.6% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 12.3% |
| Samuel Stephens | 5.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Robert Upton | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| Sofia Scarpa | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 10.3% |
| Advik Eswaran | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| Luke Barker | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 3.8% |
| Eva DeCastro | 8.9% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Oliver Fenner | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 13.8% | 19.4% |
| Aubrey Walton | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 24.3% |
| Imogene Nuss | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 16.6% | 17.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.