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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.75+3.23vs Predicted
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2Princeton University-0.15+4.57vs Predicted
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3Florida Institute of Technology-0.53+4.67vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute0.07+2.01vs Predicted
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5University of Texas0.28+0.41vs Predicted
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6Williams College-0.60+1.86vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.45-2.20vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.06-1.79vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.01-3.06vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan0.05-4.07vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.80-2.51vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.99-3.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.750.2%1st Place
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6.57Princeton University-0.150.1%1st Place
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7.67Florida Institute of Technology-0.530.1%1st Place
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6.01Webb Institute0.070.1%1st Place
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5.41University of Texas0.280.1%1st Place
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7.86Williams College-0.600.0%1st Place
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4.8Columbia University0.450.1%1st Place
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6.21SUNY Maritime College-0.060.1%1st Place
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5.94Fordham University0.010.1%1st Place
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5.93University of Michigan0.050.1%1st Place
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8.49Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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8.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Carson | 17.8% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 15.2% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Advik Eswaran | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 5.0% |
| Sofia Scarpa | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 12.9% |
| Marc Leyk | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% |
| Reese Zebrowski | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 1.9% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 15.3% | 14.2% |
| Eva DeCastro | 13.9% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| Luke Barker | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% |
| Robert Upton | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Samuel Stephens | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% |
| Imogene Nuss | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 15.9% | 20.6% |
| Aubrey Walton | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 15.0% | 28.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.