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📊 Prediction Accuracy
90.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University0.63+1.29vs Predicted
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2Penn State University-1.47+3.92vs Predicted
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3Queen's University0.42-0.34vs Predicted
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4Rochester Institute of Technology-0.88+0.93vs Predicted
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5Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-0.62vs Predicted
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6Penn State Behrend-1.07-0.81vs Predicted
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7Hamilton College-1.65-0.85vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-2.06-0.94vs Predicted
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9U. S. Military Academy-3.21+0.15vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University-3.33-0.74vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-3.20-1.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.29Cornell University0.630.4%1st Place
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5.92Penn State University-1.470.0%1st Place
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2.66Queen's University0.420.3%1st Place
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4.93Rochester Institute of Technology-0.880.1%1st Place
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4.38Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.1%1st Place
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5.19Penn State Behrend-1.070.1%1st Place
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6.15Hamilton College-1.650.1%1st Place
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7.06Rochester Institute of Technology-2.060.0%1st Place
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9.15U. S. Military Academy-3.210.0%1st Place
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9.26Syracuse University-3.330.0%1st Place
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9.01University of Rochester-3.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Greco | 36.0% | 28.9% | 16.1% | 11.7% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Simpkins | 4.8% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
| Defne Melikoglu | 25.7% | 27.7% | 21.1% | 13.1% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Elliott | 7.1% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 18.1% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Kayla Maguire | 10.5% | 11.6% | 16.7% | 15.0% | 15.4% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Bryce Nill | 5.8% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Elizabeth Price | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 14.9% | 15.4% | 16.9% | 11.3% | 4.6% | 1.1% |
| Ethan Menand | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 14.0% | 16.1% | 17.8% | 11.9% | 3.4% |
| Gus Hankinson | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 16.9% | 26.0% | 31.5% |
| Finn Halstead | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 24.5% | 35.2% |
| Ingemar Hentschel | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 19.0% | 25.2% | 27.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.