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📊 Prediction Accuracy
90.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University0.63+1.30vs Predicted
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2Queen's University0.42+0.56vs Predicted
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3Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+1.55vs Predicted
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4Rochester Institute of Technology-0.88+0.92vs Predicted
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5Hamilton College-1.65+1.30vs Predicted
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6Penn State University-1.47+0.01vs Predicted
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7U. S. Military Academy-3.21+1.96vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-2.06-0.99vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-3.33+0.32vs Predicted
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10Penn State Behrend-1.07-4.95vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-3.20-1.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.3Cornell University0.630.3%1st Place
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2.56Queen's University0.420.3%1st Place
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4.55Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.1%1st Place
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4.92Rochester Institute of Technology-0.880.1%1st Place
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6.3Hamilton College-1.650.0%1st Place
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6.01Penn State University-1.470.0%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Military Academy-3.210.0%1st Place
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7.01Rochester Institute of Technology-2.060.0%1st Place
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9.32Syracuse University-3.330.0%1st Place
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5.05Penn State Behrend-1.070.1%1st Place
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9.01University of Rochester-3.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Greco | 34.8% | 28.0% | 20.0% | 9.8% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Defne Melikoglu | 29.7% | 28.1% | 16.7% | 14.0% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 8.4% | 10.3% | 16.0% | 14.5% | 15.6% | 15.1% | 11.9% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Josh Elliott | 6.5% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 15.9% | 15.6% | 16.0% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Price | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 16.2% | 12.7% | 5.4% | 1.9% |
| Joseph Simpkins | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 15.4% | 15.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 1.0% |
| Gus Hankinson | 0.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 9.8% | 18.1% | 24.9% | 28.2% |
| Ethan Menand | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 16.7% | 17.7% | 10.7% | 3.8% |
| Finn Halstead | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 25.3% | 36.9% |
| Bryce Nill | 7.2% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 14.7% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Ingemar Hentschel | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 18.2% | 24.7% | 27.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.