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📊 Prediction Accuracy
81.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University0.63+1.30vs Predicted
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2Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+2.37vs Predicted
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3Queen's University0.42-0.34vs Predicted
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4Rochester Institute of Technology-0.88+0.92vs Predicted
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5Penn State University-1.47+0.98vs Predicted
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6Penn State Behrend-1.07-0.79vs Predicted
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7Rochester Institute of Technology-2.06-0.02vs Predicted
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8U. S. Military Academy-3.21+1.05vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-3.33+0.32vs Predicted
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10Hamilton College-1.65-3.80vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-3.20-1.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.3Cornell University0.630.4%1st Place
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4.37Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.1%1st Place
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2.66Queen's University0.420.3%1st Place
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4.92Rochester Institute of Technology-0.880.1%1st Place
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5.98Penn State University-1.470.0%1st Place
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5.21Penn State Behrend-1.070.1%1st Place
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6.98Rochester Institute of Technology-2.060.0%1st Place
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9.05U. S. Military Academy-3.210.0%1st Place
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9.32Syracuse University-3.330.0%1st Place
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6.2Hamilton College-1.650.0%1st Place
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9.03University of Rochester-3.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Greco | 35.3% | 28.9% | 17.0% | 11.6% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 10.5% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 18.3% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Defne Melikoglu | 26.4% | 26.2% | 22.2% | 12.7% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Elliott | 6.9% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 16.9% | 15.4% | 12.9% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Simpkins | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | 1.0% |
| Bryce Nill | 6.1% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 14.8% | 15.4% | 14.3% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Ethan Menand | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 14.7% | 19.0% | 15.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% |
| Gus Hankinson | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 16.8% | 26.0% | 28.4% |
| Finn Halstead | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 15.4% | 24.4% | 37.3% |
| Elizabeth Price | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 15.5% | 16.6% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 1.0% |
| Ingemar Hentschel | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 10.3% | 19.5% | 24.9% | 27.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.