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📊 Prediction Accuracy
90.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Queen's University0.42+1.60vs Predicted
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2Penn State Behrend-1.07+3.14vs Predicted
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3Cornell University0.63-0.67vs Predicted
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4Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+0.52vs Predicted
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5Rochester Institute of Technology-0.88-0.19vs Predicted
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6Hamilton College-1.65+0.39vs Predicted
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7Penn State University-1.47-1.25vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-2.06-0.94vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester-3.20+0.13vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University-3.33-0.74vs Predicted
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11U. S. Military Academy-3.21-1.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.6Queen's University0.420.3%1st Place
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5.14Penn State Behrend-1.070.1%1st Place
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2.33Cornell University0.630.3%1st Place
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4.52Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.1%1st Place
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4.81Rochester Institute of Technology-0.880.1%1st Place
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6.39Hamilton College-1.650.0%1st Place
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5.75Penn State University-1.470.1%1st Place
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7.06Rochester Institute of Technology-2.060.0%1st Place
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9.13University of Rochester-3.200.0%1st Place
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9.26Syracuse University-3.330.0%1st Place
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9.02U. S. Military Academy-3.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defne Melikoglu | 28.6% | 26.8% | 19.5% | 13.2% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bryce Nill | 6.7% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 15.8% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Marcus Greco | 34.1% | 29.5% | 17.3% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 8.4% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 18.4% | 15.0% | 15.1% | 10.3% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Josh Elliott | 8.6% | 8.4% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 15.1% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Price | 3.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 16.9% | 15.9% | 11.9% | 6.8% | 1.7% |
| Joseph Simpkins | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 14.3% | 14.7% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Ethan Menand | 2.7% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 16.8% | 18.0% | 11.3% | 3.3% |
| Ingemar Hentschel | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 17.1% | 25.8% | 31.2% |
| Finn Halstead | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 10.1% | 14.9% | 23.9% | 35.1% |
| Gus Hankinson | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 10.8% | 17.9% | 25.6% | 27.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.