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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.69+4.10vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.40+3.99vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+7.15vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.82+0.91vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.37+1.14vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.06+1.50vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.44+2.58vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.29-1.57vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.26+1.43vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.03-2.67vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.99+0.31vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy-0.11+2.41vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin0.86-1.29vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University0.28-0.48vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.76-3.12vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College1.51-6.58vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12-9.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.1Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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5.99U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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10.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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4.91Boston College2.820.2%1st Place
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6.14Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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7.5Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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9.58Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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6.43Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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10.43George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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7.33Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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11.31Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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14.41Maine Maritime Academy-0.110.0%1st Place
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11.71University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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13.52North Carolina State University0.280.0%1st Place
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11.88University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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9.42Bowdoin College1.510.0%1st Place
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7.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 14.9% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 11.0% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 2.9% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 15.6% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Meagher | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| Katharine Doble | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| Eva Ermlich | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 6.6% |
| Jane Marvin | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 17.3% | 40.3% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 8.1% |
| Lyla Solway | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 19.0% | 23.9% |
| Audrey Commerford | 1.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 14.5% | 9.4% |
| Rebecca Schill | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.