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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.06+6.14vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+3.11vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.37+3.25vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.29+2.61vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.76+6.81vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College1.51+3.51vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.03+0.45vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.40-1.96vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12-1.79vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.26+0.20vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin0.86+0.78vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.44-2.46vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.82-8.13vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.99-2.66vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University0.28-1.61vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy-0.11-1.51vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-6.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.14Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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5.11Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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6.25Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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6.61Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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11.81University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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9.51Bowdoin College1.510.0%1st Place
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7.45Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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6.04U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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7.21Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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10.2George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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11.78University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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9.54Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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4.87Boston College2.820.2%1st Place
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11.34Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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13.39North Carolina State University0.280.0%1st Place
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14.49Maine Maritime Academy-0.110.0%1st Place
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10.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Meagher | 8.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 13.6% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Katharine Doble | 9.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Audrey Commerford | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 14.1% | 9.5% |
| Rebecca Schill | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Eva Ermlich | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 10.7% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Avery Canavan | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% |
| Mary Castellini | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 9.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 15.3% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 6.5% |
| Lyla Solway | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 19.0% | 24.4% |
| Jane Marvin | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 18.0% | 39.3% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 3.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.