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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+5.88vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+3.13vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.82+1.79vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.37+2.27vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.98vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.06+1.45vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.17+3.54vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.99+2.92vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College1.51+0.43vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University0.28+3.42vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.26-0.59vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.29-5.53vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.03-5.50vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.76-1.87vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin0.86-3.41vs Predicted
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16Maine Maritime Academy-0.11-1.52vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.44-7.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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5.13Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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4.79Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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6.27Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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7.45Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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10.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.170.0%1st Place
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10.92Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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9.43Bowdoin College1.510.0%1st Place
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13.42North Carolina State University0.280.0%1st Place
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10.41George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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6.47Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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7.5Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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12.13University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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11.59University of Wisconsin0.860.0%1st Place
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14.48Maine Maritime Academy-0.110.0%1st Place
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9.6Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooke Schmelz | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Bridget Green | 13.9% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 13.7% | 15.4% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 10.7% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Meagher | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Sabrina Starck | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 3.5% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 6.3% |
| Rebecca Schill | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Lyla Solway | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 17.2% | 21.3% |
| Avery Canavan | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 3.3% |
| Katharine Doble | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Eva Ermlich | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Audrey Commerford | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 12.2% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 8.5% |
| Jane Marvin | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 16.8% | 40.5% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 2.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.