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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hope College-0.14+4.48vs Predicted
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2Michigan Technological University0.96+1.36vs Predicted
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3Purdue University-0.57+3.43vs Predicted
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4Indiana University0.29+0.90vs Predicted
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5Grand Valley State University-0.85+2.06vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan-1.14+1.92vs Predicted
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7Michigan State University0.48-2.99vs Predicted
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8Ohio State University0.65-4.39vs Predicted
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9Western Michigan University-1.85+0.62vs Predicted
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10Northern Michigan University-1.46-1.33vs Predicted
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11University of Iowa-2.51+0.18vs Predicted
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12Saint Mary's College-2.41-1.22vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-1.71-3.69vs Predicted
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14Saginaw Valley State University-3.47-1.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.48Hope College-0.148.3%1st Place
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3.36Michigan Technological University0.9622.7%1st Place
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6.43Purdue University-0.575.8%1st Place
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4.9Indiana University0.2910.3%1st Place
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7.06Grand Valley State University-0.853.9%1st Place
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7.92University of Michigan-1.143.2%1st Place
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4.01Michigan State University0.4817.2%1st Place
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3.61Ohio State University0.6518.9%1st Place
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9.62Western Michigan University-1.851.7%1st Place
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8.67Northern Michigan University-1.463.1%1st Place
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11.18University of Iowa-2.510.8%1st Place
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10.78Saint Mary's College-2.411.8%1st Place
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9.31University of Michigan-1.712.0%1st Place
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12.67Saginaw Valley State University-3.470.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Falkner | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Michels | 22.7% | 19.8% | 15.8% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Holmes | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Daniel de la Vega III | 10.3% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carly Irwin | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| River Servia | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Monika Torkos | 17.2% | 15.6% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Shaw | 18.9% | 17.9% | 15.8% | 15.8% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William O'Haver | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 15.3% | 13.5% | 4.5% |
| Lawrence Busse | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% |
| Maggie Lennon | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 17.5% | 25.7% | 16.8% |
| Emmalyn Holmquist | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 17.3% | 21.8% | 14.0% |
| Andrew Beute | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 15.0% | 14.8% | 10.5% | 3.5% |
| Adam Bryan | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 16.0% | 57.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.