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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+4.79vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.22+8.06vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.65+10.64vs Predicted
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4George Washington University0.93+6.34vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.99+1.76vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy1.18+4.10vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island0.99+2.95vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.71-4.13vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.97-2.08vs Predicted
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10Tulane University2.02-4.11vs Predicted
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11Tufts University0.54-0.20vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.49-0.64vs Predicted
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13Clemson University0.73-2.82vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston1.81-6.44vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University-1.38-7.73vs Predicted
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16Rollins College-0.06-2.36vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University0.16-4.28vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont-0.05-3.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79Georgetown University2.2010.1%1st Place
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10.06Northeastern University1.223.1%1st Place
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13.64Christopher Newport University0.651.2%1st Place
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10.34George Washington University0.932.9%1st Place
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6.76Brown University1.999.2%1st Place
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10.1U. S. Naval Academy1.183.5%1st Place
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9.95University of Rhode Island0.993.2%1st Place
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3.87Yale University2.7120.9%1st Place
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6.92Roger Williams University1.976.4%1st Place
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5.89Tulane University2.0212.8%1st Place
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10.8Tufts University0.543.2%1st Place
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11.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.492.1%1st Place
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10.18Clemson University0.733.5%1st Place
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7.56College of Charleston1.816.2%1st Place
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7.27Jacksonville University-1.388.1%1st Place
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13.64Rollins College-0.061.1%1st Place
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12.72Northwestern University0.161.6%1st Place
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14.13University of Vermont-0.051.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 10.1% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Eva Ermlich | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 15.6% | 19.4% |
| Avery Canavan | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| Katharine Doble | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ava Farley | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 20.9% | 17.4% | 15.8% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Meagher | 6.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 12.8% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.1% |
| Ella Demand | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 5.6% |
| Nilah Miller | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Emma Tallman | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Emily Allen | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| KA Hamner | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 15.6% | 20.5% |
| Grace Bray | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 13.7% |
| Ella Towner | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 16.0% | 24.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.