Race 3B

maritime-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Liana Folger 11.7% 12.3% 11.7% 11.7% 14.5% 11.4% 10.1% 8.2% 5.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Duncan Howes 15.1% 17.2% 13.0% 14.1% 11.1% 11.1% 7.9% 6.1% 2.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Charles Peck 13.0% 10.9% 13.2% 12.2% 10.3% 11.2% 11.7% 9.8% 4.5% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1%
Julia Paxton 13.3% 14.5% 15.3% 13.3% 10.2% 8.2% 10.4% 8.4% 3.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
Matthew Winter 2.4% 3.4% 3.8% 3.6% 5.3% 7.5% 7.6% 10.2% 12.9% 20.7% 19.5% 3.1%
Christopher Stessing 20.8% 19.6% 13.9% 12.7% 12.9% 7.5% 6.2% 2.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Lance Fraser 9.4% 8.2% 10.4% 10.2% 11.1% 10.1% 10.9% 11.4% 9.0% 6.2% 3.1% 0.0%
Nicholas Woviotis 1.2% 1.5% 1.9% 3.1% 3.5% 3.8% 4.2% 6.7% 9.3% 15.6% 37.4% 11.8%
Rudy Normann 4.3% 4.2% 6.2% 7.4% 8.3% 11.4% 10.1% 11.9% 15.6% 12.1% 8.1% 0.4%
Connor McGowan 5.0% 5.9% 6.0% 5.6% 6.3% 9.7% 11.1% 12.1% 15.6% 13.2% 8.6% 0.9%
Mary Margaret Meehan 3.5% 2.0% 4.4% 5.6% 6.3% 7.8% 8.6% 11.3% 16.8% 19.7% 12.1% 1.9%
Sara Winkelman 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 1.0% 2.1% 3.3% 9.0% 81.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.