Race 5B

maritime-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Rudy Normann 4.4% 4.9% 5.1% 6.5% 8.1% 8.9% 11.4% 11.5% 15.7% 14.1% 7.9% 1.5%
Lance Fraser 7.4% 9.1% 8.6% 11.9% 10.8% 12.2% 11.5% 12.6% 8.6% 5.2% 1.9% 0.2%
Christopher Stessing 21.4% 16.6% 15.6% 13.2% 11.1% 10.3% 5.6% 4.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Liana Folger 11.3% 13.4% 13.1% 12.0% 13.6% 10.5% 9.6% 7.0% 5.6% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Charles Peck 12.7% 12.5% 13.1% 11.7% 11.8% 11.1% 9.1% 8.2% 5.3% 2.9% 1.6% 0.0%
Connor McGowan 4.2% 4.6% 6.6% 6.4% 6.9% 8.4% 11.0% 13.6% 15.6% 13.2% 8.4% 1.1%
Duncan Howes 15.9% 17.9% 14.4% 12.8% 11.6% 10.6% 7.3% 5.6% 2.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Julia Paxton 15.3% 13.1% 12.9% 13.1% 11.1% 11.0% 9.3% 7.0% 4.1% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0%
Matthew Winter 2.7% 2.1% 3.4% 4.7% 5.1% 6.9% 9.2% 12.0% 15.8% 20.3% 15.8% 2.0%
Nicholas Woviotis 1.2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.8% 2.8% 2.3% 5.0% 5.8% 10.8% 15.8% 38.5% 10.5%
Mary Margaret Meehan 3.2% 3.1% 4.6% 4.6% 6.6% 7.2% 10.2% 11.5% 13.5% 18.5% 15.0% 2.0%
Sara Winkelman 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 1.8% 2.9% 8.6% 82.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.