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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.69+4.65vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire0.35+7.85vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+2.83vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.37-0.08vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.32+1.94vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University0.88+2.35vs Predicted
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7Tufts University0.90+1.22vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.26-3.80vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College1.65-3.25vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College0.60-0.71vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.59-1.77vs Predicted
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12The Citadel0.34-1.67vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy0.77-4.04vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University-0.80-1.00vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.20-4.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.65Tufts University1.690.1%1st Place
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9.85University of New Hampshire0.350.0%1st Place
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5.83U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.1%1st Place
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3.92Harvard University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.94University of Vermont1.320.1%1st Place
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8.35Northeastern University0.880.0%1st Place
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8.22Tufts University0.900.1%1st Place
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4.2Boston College2.260.2%1st Place
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5.75Bowdoin College1.650.1%1st Place
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9.29Dartmouth College0.600.0%1st Place
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9.23Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.590.0%1st Place
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10.33The Citadel0.340.0%1st Place
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8.96Maine Maritime Academy0.770.0%1st Place
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13.0Northwestern University-0.800.0%1st Place
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10.47University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Macaulay | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Sam Harris | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 8.8% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 10.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Strom | 18.6% | 19.0% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Aidan Boni | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Kiana Beachy | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 2.5% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 16.2% | 17.6% | 15.6% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Stevens | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ava Hurwitz | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 5.0% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 5.3% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 10.0% |
| Henri Richardsson | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% |
| Anna Kovacs | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 14.7% | 49.9% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 18.0% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.