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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.15+2.32vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.67+0.45vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire0.28+5.27vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14+1.80vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.71+2.11vs Predicted
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6Tufts University0.68+1.14vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.10-1.10vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College0.45-0.14vs Predicted
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9Maine Maritime Academy-0.41+1.37vs Predicted
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10The Citadel-0.68+1.14vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University0.78-4.15vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College0.02-2.67vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.21-3.00vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont-0.39-3.72vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University-2.47-0.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.32Harvard University2.150.2%1st Place
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2.45Boston College2.670.4%1st Place
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8.27University of New Hampshire0.280.0%1st Place
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5.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.1%1st Place
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7.11University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
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7.14Tufts University0.680.0%1st Place
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5.9Tufts University1.100.1%1st Place
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7.86Bowdoin College0.450.0%1st Place
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10.37Maine Maritime Academy-0.410.0%1st Place
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11.14The Citadel-0.680.0%1st Place
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6.85Northeastern University0.780.0%1st Place
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9.33Dartmouth College0.020.0%1st Place
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10.0Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.210.0%1st Place
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10.28University of Vermont-0.390.0%1st Place
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14.19Northwestern University-2.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Danielson | 22.4% | 21.6% | 16.4% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Joslin | 36.2% | 25.1% | 16.4% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marykate Hanus | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| David Vinogradov | 6.1% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Grant Schmidt | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Shea McGrath | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Griffin Stolp | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 17.1% | 4.2% |
| Henry Parker | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 23.1% | 8.1% |
| Carter Anderson | 4.9% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Will Eggena | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 0.9% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 3.3% |
| William Gear | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 15.8% | 3.6% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 7.6% | 77.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.