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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.67+1.49vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.15+1.31vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14+2.73vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont-0.39+6.30vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.10+0.98vs Predicted
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6The Citadel-0.68+5.12vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College0.45+0.80vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.68-0.84vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.21+0.77vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire0.28-1.61vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy-0.41-0.58vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University0.78-4.99vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.71-5.70vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College0.02-4.93vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University-2.47-0.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.49Boston College2.670.4%1st Place
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3.31Harvard University2.150.2%1st Place
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5.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.1%1st Place
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10.3University of Vermont-0.390.0%1st Place
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5.98Tufts University1.100.1%1st Place
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11.12The Citadel-0.680.0%1st Place
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7.8Bowdoin College0.450.0%1st Place
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7.16Tufts University0.680.0%1st Place
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9.77Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.210.0%1st Place
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8.39University of New Hampshire0.280.0%1st Place
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10.42Maine Maritime Academy-0.410.0%1st Place
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7.01Northeastern University0.780.0%1st Place
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7.3University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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9.07Dartmouth College0.020.0%1st Place
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14.16Northwestern University-2.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Joslin | 35.6% | 26.1% | 15.8% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kate Danielson | 21.8% | 21.6% | 17.7% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Vinogradov | 7.8% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Gear | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 16.4% | 16.0% | 4.0% |
| Grant Schmidt | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Henry Parker | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 16.0% | 24.0% | 7.6% |
| Shea McGrath | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 0.3% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 2.7% |
| Marykate Hanus | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 0.7% |
| Griffin Stolp | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 15.3% | 7.4% |
| Carter Anderson | 4.3% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Will Eggena | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 1.2% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 9.3% | 75.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.