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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.67+1.57vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.10+3.99vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College0.45+5.11vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.68+3.41vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.05+1.36vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.67+1.49vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire0.28+1.60vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.15-4.46vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College0.02+0.50vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University0.78-2.78vs Predicted
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11The Citadel-0.68+0.43vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy-0.01-2.22vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.71-5.38vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University-2.47+0.30vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.21-4.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.57Boston College2.670.3%1st Place
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5.99Tufts University1.100.1%1st Place
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8.11Bowdoin College0.450.0%1st Place
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7.41Tufts University0.680.0%1st Place
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6.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.050.1%1st Place
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7.49University of Vermont0.670.0%1st Place
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8.6University of New Hampshire0.280.0%1st Place
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3.54Harvard University2.150.2%1st Place
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9.5Dartmouth College0.020.0%1st Place
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7.22Northeastern University0.780.0%1st Place
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11.43The Citadel-0.680.0%1st Place
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9.78Maine Maritime Academy-0.010.0%1st Place
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7.62University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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14.3Northwestern University-2.470.0%1st Place
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10.08Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Joslin | 33.4% | 27.4% | 15.9% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Schmidt | 6.8% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Shea McGrath | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 0.5% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Joey Richardson | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Marco Welch | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Marykate Hanus | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 1.4% |
| Kate Danielson | 20.2% | 18.4% | 19.9% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Eggena | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 1.7% |
| Carter Anderson | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Henry Parker | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 30.3% | 9.7% |
| Isaac Thompson | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 10.9% | 3.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 3.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 9.6% | 78.2% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 13.2% | 14.6% | 16.3% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.