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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.67+1.55vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont0.67+5.36vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.15+0.46vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.05+2.30vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.71+2.42vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College0.45+2.22vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.10-0.82vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.68-0.55vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.78-1.94vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire0.28-1.26vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy-0.01-1.42vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College0.02-2.26vs Predicted
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13The Citadel-0.68-1.43vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.21-3.87vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University-2.47-0.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.55Boston College2.670.4%1st Place
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7.36University of Vermont0.670.0%1st Place
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3.46Harvard University2.150.2%1st Place
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6.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.050.1%1st Place
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7.42University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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8.22Bowdoin College0.450.0%1st Place
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6.18Tufts University1.100.1%1st Place
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7.45Tufts University0.680.0%1st Place
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7.06Northeastern University0.780.0%1st Place
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8.74University of New Hampshire0.280.0%1st Place
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9.58Maine Maritime Academy-0.010.0%1st Place
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9.74Dartmouth College0.020.0%1st Place
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11.57The Citadel-0.680.0%1st Place
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10.13Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.210.0%1st Place
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14.25Northwestern University-2.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Joslin | 35.7% | 25.7% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marco Welch | 4.2% | 3.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Kate Danielson | 20.6% | 19.2% | 18.1% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joey Richardson | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Shea McGrath | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 0.8% |
| Grant Schmidt | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Carter Anderson | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Marykate Hanus | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 1.2% |
| Isaac Thompson | 1.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 3.7% |
| Will Eggena | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 1.6% |
| Henry Parker | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 15.6% | 30.5% | 10.0% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 15.2% | 15.6% | 3.1% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 8.6% | 78.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.