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📊 Prediction Accuracy

60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Peter Joslin 35.7% 25.7% 14.2% 10.9% 6.1% 3.5% 2.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marco Welch 4.2% 3.9% 8.9% 6.8% 8.5% 10.5% 8.3% 10.1% 8.7% 7.9% 8.4% 6.3% 4.6% 2.7% 0.2%
Kate Danielson 20.6% 19.2% 18.1% 13.7% 10.6% 8.3% 4.5% 2.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Joey Richardson 6.7% 8.2% 9.1% 9.8% 10.9% 9.2% 9.6% 8.7% 7.6% 8.5% 4.2% 4.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1%
Nate Ingebritson 4.7% 6.8% 7.3% 6.2% 6.5% 8.5% 8.9% 8.8% 10.6% 10.1% 7.1% 5.6% 5.7% 2.8% 0.4%
Shea McGrath 2.9% 5.0% 4.6% 5.6% 7.1% 7.0% 8.6% 8.5% 10.6% 9.5% 9.2% 8.9% 7.3% 4.4% 0.8%
Grant Schmidt 8.0% 7.3% 9.5% 10.2% 10.0% 10.2% 10.1% 9.3% 7.7% 5.6% 4.9% 4.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Patricia Winssinger 4.3% 5.6% 7.0% 8.2% 7.9% 7.4% 8.6% 9.5% 8.7% 10.3% 7.3% 7.5% 4.5% 2.7% 0.5%
Carter Anderson 3.9% 5.9% 7.0% 10.9% 8.8% 9.5% 8.8% 9.8% 8.8% 7.7% 6.9% 5.7% 4.4% 1.7% 0.2%
Marykate Hanus 2.7% 3.9% 3.9% 5.0% 6.5% 6.1% 7.1% 8.6% 8.9% 9.2% 10.5% 10.6% 10.1% 5.7% 1.2%
Isaac Thompson 1.7% 4.0% 2.1% 4.2% 4.8% 5.9% 6.4% 6.7% 6.9% 8.9% 10.0% 10.5% 14.0% 10.2% 3.7%
Will Eggena 2.3% 1.7% 2.5% 3.2% 4.8% 6.2% 6.8% 5.0% 8.7% 8.0% 11.7% 12.9% 11.2% 13.4% 1.6%
Henry Parker 0.8% 0.6% 2.2% 1.6% 2.4% 3.6% 3.5% 4.5% 4.0% 4.5% 7.3% 8.9% 15.6% 30.5% 10.0%
Zach Earnshaw 1.4% 2.1% 3.1% 3.1% 4.7% 3.7% 5.8% 6.5% 6.5% 7.3% 9.7% 12.2% 15.2% 15.6% 3.1%
Sean Bascoe 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 1.6% 2.2% 2.1% 3.5% 8.6% 78.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.