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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.67+1.56vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University0.78+4.95vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.05+3.26vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.15-0.47vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.10+1.26vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.71+1.39vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College0.02+2.43vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College0.45+0.18vs Predicted
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9Tufts University0.68-1.57vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire0.28-1.24vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.21-0.79vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.67-4.40vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy-0.01-3.22vs Predicted
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14The Citadel-0.68-2.60vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University-2.47-0.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.56Boston College2.670.3%1st Place
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6.95Northeastern University0.780.0%1st Place
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6.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.050.1%1st Place
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3.53Harvard University2.150.2%1st Place
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6.26Tufts University1.100.1%1st Place
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7.39University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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9.43Dartmouth College0.020.0%1st Place
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8.18Bowdoin College0.450.0%1st Place
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7.43Tufts University0.680.0%1st Place
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8.76University of New Hampshire0.280.0%1st Place
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10.21Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.210.0%1st Place
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7.6University of Vermont0.670.0%1st Place
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9.78Maine Maritime Academy-0.010.0%1st Place
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11.4The Citadel-0.680.0%1st Place
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14.25Northwestern University-2.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Joslin | 34.6% | 25.7% | 17.1% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Anderson | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Joey Richardson | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Kate Danielson | 19.6% | 21.2% | 15.9% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Schmidt | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.1% |
| Will Eggena | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 2.4% |
| Shea McGrath | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 0.9% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Marykate Hanus | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 1.1% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 15.4% | 15.6% | 5.4% |
| Marco Welch | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Isaac Thompson | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 2.4% |
| Henry Parker | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 16.6% | 27.8% | 9.1% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 9.2% | 77.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.