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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.67+1.51vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.71+5.00vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14+2.73vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.15-0.57vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University0.78+1.99vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College0.02+3.26vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire0.28+1.38vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College0.45-0.08vs Predicted
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9Tufts University0.68-1.82vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont-0.39+0.50vs Predicted
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11The Citadel-0.68+0.21vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.10-5.83vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy-0.01-3.44vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University-2.47+0.25vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.21-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.51Boston College2.670.4%1st Place
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7.0University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
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5.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.1%1st Place
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3.43Harvard University2.150.2%1st Place
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6.99Northeastern University0.780.1%1st Place
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9.26Dartmouth College0.020.0%1st Place
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8.38University of New Hampshire0.280.0%1st Place
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7.92Bowdoin College0.450.0%1st Place
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7.18Tufts University0.680.0%1st Place
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10.5University of Vermont-0.390.0%1st Place
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11.21The Citadel-0.680.0%1st Place
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6.17Tufts University1.100.1%1st Place
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9.56Maine Maritime Academy-0.010.0%1st Place
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14.25Northwestern University-2.470.0%1st Place
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9.93Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Joslin | 35.5% | 25.3% | 16.2% | 10.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| David Vinogradov | 7.9% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kate Danielson | 19.9% | 22.4% | 15.9% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Anderson | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Will Eggena | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 2.0% |
| Marykate Hanus | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 0.9% |
| Shea McGrath | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
| Patricia Winssinger | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| William Gear | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 17.0% | 16.1% | 5.2% |
| Henry Parker | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 27.8% | 8.9% |
| Grant Schmidt | 6.4% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Isaac Thompson | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 2.4% |
| Sean Bascoe | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 10.4% | 75.7% |
| Zach Earnshaw | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.