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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.53+8.09vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.53+3.31vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.81+5.04vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.43+5.20vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.33+0.85vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.13+4.47vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.14vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.35+1.63vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.10-2.34vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.10-3.02vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.69+1.26vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.12-5.04vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+0.94vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-4.81vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.00-4.05vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University2.17-5.60vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.23-0.19vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan1.64-5.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.09Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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5.31Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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8.04Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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9.2Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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5.85Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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10.47University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.63Fordham University2.350.0%1st Place
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6.66College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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6.98Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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12.26Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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6.96Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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13.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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9.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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10.95Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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10.4Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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16.81SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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12.14University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kirkman | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 11.3% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.9% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.4% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 1.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 0.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 13.0% | 5.0% |
| Jack Egan | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 15.6% | 25.0% | 13.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 2.5% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 12.5% | 69.3% |
| Braden Vogel | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.