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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.10+5.87vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.17+8.66vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.53+6.16vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.53+1.16vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.07vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+3.44vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.33-1.13vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.69+4.01vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.43+0.29vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.12-3.13vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.10-4.22vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.81-3.86vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan1.64-0.92vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.13-3.80vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.00-4.10vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.35-6.32vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.23-0.16vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-4.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.87College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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10.66Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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9.16Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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5.16Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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5.87Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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12.01Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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9.29Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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6.87Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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6.78Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.14Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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12.08University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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10.2University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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10.9Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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9.68Fordham University2.350.0%1st Place
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16.84SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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13.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Zittrer | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 1.1% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 14.0% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.1% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 0.6% |
| Guthrie Braun | 11.4% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 14.6% | 4.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Jack Egan | 10.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Braden Vogel | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 4.7% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 1.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 2.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 0.9% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 10.9% | 71.2% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 15.1% | 25.7% | 12.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.