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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.10+5.90vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.81+5.98vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.69+9.37vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.33+1.85vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.10+1.71vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.12+0.63vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+7.02vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.53-2.82vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.00+1.99vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.63vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.53-1.98vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-2.18vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University2.17-2.86vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.13-3.85vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.43-5.70vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.64-3.66vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.23-0.21vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.35-8.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.9Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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7.98Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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12.37Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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5.85Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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6.71College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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6.63Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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14.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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5.18Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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10.99Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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7.37U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.02Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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9.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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10.14Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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10.15University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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9.3Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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12.34University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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16.79SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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9.43Fordham University2.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 4.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 11.5% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Zittrer | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jack Egan | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 28.4% | 13.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 13.3% | 14.7% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 2.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 0.9% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 1.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 5.0% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 11.1% | 70.5% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.