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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.10+5.91vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+4.79vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.29vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.13+6.36vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+8.95vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.53-0.83vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.53+1.86vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.43+1.27vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.64+3.30vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.35-0.15vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.33-5.05vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University2.17-1.33vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-3.71vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.23+2.69vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.10-8.36vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.69-3.78vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.81-9.01vs Predicted
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18Northeastern University2.00-7.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.91Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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6.79Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.29U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.36University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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13.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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5.17Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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8.86Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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9.27Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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12.3University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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9.85Fordham University2.350.0%1st Place
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5.95Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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10.67Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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9.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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16.69SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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6.64College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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12.22Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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7.99Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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10.78Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jack Egan | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 2.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 26.8% | 14.3% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 14.6% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| Braden Vogel | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 4.9% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Guthrie Braun | 11.4% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 1.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 66.6% |
| Noah Zittrer | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 4.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.