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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.53+4.31vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.33+3.90vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.12+3.63vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.10+2.49vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.09+5.37vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.53+2.78vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.00+3.78vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.13+2.23vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+0.28vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.10-3.23vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.99-3.86vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+2.22vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.35-3.70vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University2.17-4.14vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.64-2.91vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.69-3.92vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.23-0.22vs Predicted
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18Tufts University2.43-9.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.31Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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5.9Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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6.63Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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6.49Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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10.37Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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8.78Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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10.78Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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10.23University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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9.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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6.77College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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7.14U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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14.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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9.3Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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9.86Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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12.09University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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12.08Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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16.78SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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8.98Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Sitzmann | 13.3% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jack Egan | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 1.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 2.1% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Noah Zittrer | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 14.0% | 27.4% | 13.8% |
| Jacob Zils | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 0.4% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Braden Vogel | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 4.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 13.4% | 4.3% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 11.5% | 69.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.