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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+5.31vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+3.89vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.53+1.67vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.10+2.20vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.43+3.27vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.33-0.53vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.09+2.79vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.53-0.10vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University2.17+0.60vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+3.13vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.69+0.28vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan1.64-0.73vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.00-2.84vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.13-4.29vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-6.37vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.23-0.12vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.35-8.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.31U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.89Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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4.67Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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6.2Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.27Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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5.47Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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9.79Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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7.9Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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9.6Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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13.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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11.28Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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11.27University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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10.16Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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9.71University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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8.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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15.88SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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8.83Fordham University2.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 10.8% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 15.0% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 11.1% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.0% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 1.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 1.2% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 22.9% | 13.8% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 4.4% |
| Braden Vogel | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 4.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 1.8% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 1.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 5.4% | 11.4% | 69.8% |
| Jacob Zils | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.