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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.33+4.20vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.17+7.32vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.10+3.11vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.43+4.50vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+1.31vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.53-1.15vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.69+4.16vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.35+0.61vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+4.26vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-1.45vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.53-2.78vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.09-2.28vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.00-2.83vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.13-4.24vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.12-8.98vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.64-4.65vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.23-1.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.2Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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9.32Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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6.11Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.5Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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6.31U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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4.85Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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11.16Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.61Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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13.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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8.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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8.22Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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9.72Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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10.17Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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9.76University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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6.02Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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11.35University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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15.88SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 14.0% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 0.7% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.9% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 14.0% | 13.9% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 4.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 0.3% |
| Reed McAllister | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 27.6% | 13.5% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 2.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 2.9% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 0.7% |
| Jack Egan | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Braden Vogel | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 5.1% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 12.0% | 68.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.