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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.43+7.47vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+6.70vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.33+2.48vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.12+2.16vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.81+2.15vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.13+3.93vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.53-2.17vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.53+0.10vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University2.17+0.74vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.99-3.51vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.10-4.65vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.35-3.07vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+0.19vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.00-3.71vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.64-3.64vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.69-4.72vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-1.07-0.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.47Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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8.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
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5.48Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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6.16Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.15Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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9.93University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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4.83Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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8.1Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
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9.74Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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6.49U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.35Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.93Fordham University2.350.0%1st Place
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13.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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10.29Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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11.36University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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11.28Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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16.55SUNY Maritime College-1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Mueller | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.0% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Egan | 10.0% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 14.4% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 0.6% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.2% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 0.2% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 31.0% | 8.3% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 1.1% |
| Braden Vogel | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 15.5% | 1.8% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 2.0% |
| Grace Wilson | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 85.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.