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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+4.96vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.13+7.50vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.17+6.43vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.35+4.80vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.81+2.01vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.63vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.33-1.64vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.53-3.17vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.00+1.21vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.10-3.93vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.43-2.34vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+3.45vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.69-1.80vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.53-5.72vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.64-3.80vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.23-0.38vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-8.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.96Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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9.5University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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9.43Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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8.8Fordham University2.350.0%1st Place
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7.01Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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6.63U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.36Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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4.83Stanford University3.530.2%1st Place
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10.21Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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6.07Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.66Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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15.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.2Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.28Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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11.2University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
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15.62SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
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8.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 11.6% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.9% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 15.4% | 16.2% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 5.2% | 1.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 8.8% | 30.0% | 44.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 9.2% | 1.9% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Braden Vogel | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 17.5% | 8.9% | 2.9% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 7.8% | 30.9% | 47.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.1% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.