← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Bowdoin College2.81+5.99vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University2.43+6.41vs Predicted
-
3Yale University3.12+3.06vs Predicted
-
4Brown University3.33+1.41vs Predicted
-
5Stanford University3.53-0.30vs Predicted
-
6Jacksonville University2.17+3.60vs Predicted
-
7Fordham University2.35+1.83vs Predicted
-
8Roger Williams University3.10-1.95vs Predicted
-
9University of Pennsylvania2.13+0.79vs Predicted
-
10Northeastern University2.00-0.02vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Naval Academy2.99-4.38vs Predicted
-
12Boston College2.53-3.83vs Predicted
-
13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-4.28vs Predicted
-
14University of Michigan1.64-2.61vs Predicted
-
15Boston University1.69-3.86vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-0.46vs Predicted
-
17SUNY Maritime College-0.23-1.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.99Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
-
8.41Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
-
6.06Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
-
5.41Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
-
4.7Stanford University3.530.2%1st Place
-
9.6Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
-
8.83Fordham University2.350.0%1st Place
-
6.05Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
-
9.79University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
-
9.98Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
-
6.62U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
8.17Boston College2.530.1%1st Place
-
8.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.0%1st Place
-
11.39University of Michigan1.640.0%1st Place
-
11.14Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
-
15.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
-
15.59SUNY Maritime College-0.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Egan | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.5% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 16.0% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 0.4% |
| Jacob Zils | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 0.7% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 0.2% |
| Braden Vogel | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 18.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 13.0% | 15.1% | 9.9% | 2.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 30.4% | 45.6% |
| Jeremy Lunati | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 7.1% | 30.1% | 47.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.