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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.55+6.44vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+6.75vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.45+4.83vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.30+4.11vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.60+5.75vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.44+1.67vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.79-0.65vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.63-1.08vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.29-4.35vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.61+1.12vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.35-2.81vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+3.25vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.37-1.39vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania2.47-6.70vs Predicted
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150.53-0.60vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.93-6.33vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.06-1.16vs Predicted
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18Fordham University2.01-8.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.44U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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8.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.0%1st Place
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7.83Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.11Roger Williams University2.300.1%1st Place
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10.75Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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7.67Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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6.35Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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6.92Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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4.65Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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11.12Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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8.19College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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15.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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11.61Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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7.3University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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14.40.530.0%1st Place
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9.67Tufts University1.930.0%1st Place
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15.84SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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9.14Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Porter Bell | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 1.7% |
| Peter Busch | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 9.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 16.0% | 15.1% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 2.2% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 25.1% | 28.5% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 3.2% |
| Jackson McAliley | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Homa | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 17.4% | 19.7% | 19.0% |
| Clark Morris | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Luke Barker | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 22.0% | 42.9% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.8% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.