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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.55+6.25vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+7.11vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+5.44vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.44+3.38vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.63+1.71vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.45+1.38vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.35+0.76vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.30-0.09vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.79-2.91vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.93-0.33vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.68-0.54vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.61-1.01vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.29-8.46vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.27-2.37vs Predicted
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150.53-0.75vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.02vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.60-6.14vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.06-2.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.25U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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9.11University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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8.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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7.38Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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6.71Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.38Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.76College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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7.91Roger Williams University2.300.1%1st Place
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6.09Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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9.67Tufts University1.930.1%1st Place
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10.46Northeastern University1.680.0%1st Place
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10.99Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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4.54Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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11.63Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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14.250.530.0%1st Place
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14.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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10.86Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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15.59SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Welburn | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| JJ Klempen | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Peter Busch | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Mason Stang | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Reade Decker | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Morris | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Sam Monaghan | 4.2% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 2.6% |
| Stephan Baker | 17.1% | 16.0% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 4.5% |
| Jack Homa | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 10.0% | 16.0% | 19.9% | 18.5% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 14.5% | 23.4% | 26.4% |
| Porter Bell | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 2.1% |
| Luke Barker | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 11.6% | 20.2% | 41.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.