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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+7.45vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.55+5.22vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.45+4.69vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.44+3.42vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.79+1.20vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.68+4.47vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.01+2.17vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.29-3.42vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston2.35-1.22vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.30-1.71vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+3.84vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.06-2.80vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.66-2.68vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.61-3.57vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.60-4.29vs Predicted
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16Brown University2.63-9.18vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.22-1.04vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.06-2.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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7.22U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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7.69Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.42Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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6.2Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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10.47Northeastern University1.680.0%1st Place
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9.17Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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4.58Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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7.78College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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8.29Roger Williams University2.300.1%1st Place
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14.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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9.2University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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10.32Tufts University1.660.0%1st Place
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10.43Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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10.71Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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6.82Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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15.96University of Michigan-0.220.0%1st Place
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15.45SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jack Welburn | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Reade Decker | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Monaghan | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Stephan Baker | 17.7% | 15.7% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 16.0% | 26.1% | 21.3% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Porter Bell | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 1.1% |
| Mason Stang | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Hammett | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 12.8% | 22.6% | 42.9% |
| Luke Barker | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 7.4% | 16.3% | 25.3% | 30.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.