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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+7.50vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.44+5.71vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.35+5.08vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+4.89vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.29-0.39vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.66+4.48vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.55+0.06vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.60+2.56vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.30-1.05vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan-0.22+5.97vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.68-0.45vs Predicted
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12Stanford University2.79-5.52vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.45-5.63vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.01-5.13vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-0.19vs Predicted
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16Brown University2.63-9.16vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.61-6.22vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.06-2.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.0%1st Place
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7.71Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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8.08College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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8.89University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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4.61Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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10.48Tufts University1.660.0%1st Place
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7.06U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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10.56Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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7.95Roger Williams University2.300.1%1st Place
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15.97University of Michigan-0.220.0%1st Place
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10.55Northeastern University1.680.0%1st Place
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6.48Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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7.37Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.87Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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14.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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6.84Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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10.78Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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15.49SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Peter Busch | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Stephan Baker | 19.3% | 15.3% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 1.6% |
| Jack Welburn | 7.7% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Porter Bell | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Jack Hammett | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 13.1% | 24.0% | 41.2% |
| Sam Monaghan | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| Reade Decker | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 19.0% | 24.1% | 19.5% |
| Mason Stang | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 1.1% |
| Luke Barker | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 13.4% | 25.9% | 32.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.