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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.05+4.66vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.44+5.80vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+5.59vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.30+4.04vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.45+2.48vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.79+0.29vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.02vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.35-0.18vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.55-1.92vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.60+1.00vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.01-1.61vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.61-0.95vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.66-2.59vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+0.63vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.29-10.36vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.22-0.06vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.68-6.37vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College-0.06-2.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.66Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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7.8Boston College2.440.0%1st Place
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8.59Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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8.04Roger Williams University2.300.1%1st Place
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7.48Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.29Stanford University2.790.1%1st Place
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9.02University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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7.82College of Charleston2.350.1%1st Place
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7.08U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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11.0Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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9.39Fordham University2.010.0%1st Place
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11.05Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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10.41Tufts University1.660.0%1st Place
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14.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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4.64Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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15.94University of Michigan-0.220.0%1st Place
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10.63Northeastern University1.680.0%1st Place
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15.52SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Behrens | 11.7% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Reade Decker | 9.5% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Welburn | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 1.3% |
| Lucas Thress | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 5.5% | 1.9% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 17.3% | 20.9% | 20.6% |
| Stephan Baker | 17.2% | 15.0% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Hammett | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 12.0% | 24.3% | 41.0% |
| Sam Monaghan | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 0.9% |
| Luke Barker | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 27.0% | 31.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.