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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.44+5.70vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.29+2.16vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+4.54vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.55+2.57vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.60+4.69vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.37vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.55-0.54vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.37+2.41vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.45-2.02vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.30-2.80vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.05-5.90vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.66-2.44vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.27-1.98vs Predicted
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14Jacksonville University1.61-4.07vs Predicted
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150.53-1.98vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.06-1.45vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.73-1.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.7Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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4.16Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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7.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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6.57U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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9.69Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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8.37University of Pennsylvania2.060.0%1st Place
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6.46Stanford University2.550.1%1st Place
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10.41Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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6.98Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.2Roger Williams University2.300.1%1st Place
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5.1Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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9.56Tufts University1.660.0%1st Place
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11.02Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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9.93Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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13.020.530.0%1st Place
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14.55SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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15.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Busch | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 18.5% | 15.6% | 14.7% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Jack Welburn | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 2.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Sofia Segalla | 4.5% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 6.3% | 1.6% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 14.6% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 2.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 0.4% |
| Jack Homa | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 19.3% | 19.6% | 11.1% |
| Luke Barker | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 14.6% | 32.3% | 23.9% |
| Oscar Gilroy | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 17.6% | 58.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.