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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+3.14vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+5.48vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.05+1.93vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+4.25vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.55+1.35vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.38+1.24vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.44-0.08vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.66+1.44vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.61+0.95vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.60-0.24vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.45-4.01vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.27-1.09vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.55-6.43vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.37-3.24vs Predicted
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150.53-1.96vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.06-1.44vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.73-1.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.14Yale University3.290.2%1st Place
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7.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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4.93Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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8.25University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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6.35Stanford University2.550.1%1st Place
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7.24Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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6.92Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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9.44Tufts University1.660.0%1st Place
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9.95Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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9.76Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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6.99Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.91Fordham University1.270.0%1st Place
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6.57U. S. Naval Academy2.550.1%1st Place
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10.76Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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13.040.530.0%1st Place
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14.56SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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15.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 18.9% | 16.6% | 14.3% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Blake Behrens | 14.1% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Igoe | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 0.8% |
| Porter Bell | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.9% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Shachoy | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 12.5% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Jack Welburn | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 6.8% | 1.2% |
| Jack Homa | 0.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 18.3% | 21.2% | 10.6% |
| Luke Barker | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 32.1% | 24.6% |
| Oscar Gilroy | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 8.2% | 18.0% | 58.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.