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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+2.21vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.22+1.58vs Predicted
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3Fordham University0.99+2.71vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.75-1.45vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.46-0.34vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University1.08-0.55vs Predicted
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7Hampton University0.61-0.65vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.15-2.67vs Predicted
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9George Washington University-0.77-0.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.21St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
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3.58U. S. Naval Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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5.71Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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2.55U. S. Naval Academy2.750.3%1st Place
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4.66University of Pennsylvania1.460.1%1st Place
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5.45Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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6.35Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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5.33Old Dominion University1.150.1%1st Place
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8.17George Washington University-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Jensen | 21.7% | 19.0% | 18.8% | 17.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Tanner Kelly | 15.1% | 18.8% | 18.7% | 16.5% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 14.9% | 19.3% | 18.5% | 6.0% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 31.9% | 25.0% | 18.5% | 12.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Fox | 8.7% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 16.0% | 18.9% | 14.5% | 4.5% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 17.1% | 26.6% | 12.6% |
| Sam Riley | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 15.2% | 4.0% |
| Jamie Lynch | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 12.4% | 69.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.