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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.22+2.36vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.15+3.49vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+0.19vs Predicted
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4Hampton University0.61+2.16vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.99+0.46vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.75-3.50vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.08-1.55vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.15-2.71vs Predicted
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9George Washington University-0.75-0.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.36U. S. Naval Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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5.49Old Dominion University1.150.0%1st Place
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3.19St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
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6.16Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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5.46Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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2.5U. S. Naval Academy2.750.3%1st Place
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5.45Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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5.29University of Pennsylvania1.150.1%1st Place
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8.11George Washington University-0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Kelly | 18.4% | 18.9% | 18.9% | 18.0% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Sam Riley | 4.7% | 5.4% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 15.8% | 17.9% | 16.8% | 13.8% | 5.2% |
| Nathan Jensen | 20.0% | 22.3% | 19.0% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Brown | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 18.6% | 24.7% | 10.6% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.5% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 16.7% | 15.3% | 7.4% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 32.2% | 27.0% | 17.6% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 17.1% | 17.9% | 15.5% | 4.3% |
| Margaux Cowles | 7.8% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 16.9% | 15.1% | 14.9% | 4.8% |
| Thomas Belcastro | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 12.4% | 67.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.