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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.22+2.32vs Predicted
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2Fordham University0.99+3.78vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University1.08+2.46vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.15+1.15vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.75-2.47vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-2.89vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.15-1.72vs Predicted
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8Hampton University0.61-1.78vs Predicted
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9George Washington University-0.77-0.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.32U. S. Naval Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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5.78Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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5.46Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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5.15University of Pennsylvania1.150.1%1st Place
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2.53U. S. Naval Academy2.750.3%1st Place
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3.11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
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5.28Old Dominion University1.150.1%1st Place
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6.22Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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8.15George Washington University-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Kelly | 17.7% | 19.4% | 20.1% | 17.2% | 13.6% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.9% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 14.2% | 17.7% | 17.6% | 17.9% | 6.8% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.0% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 19.0% | 16.8% | 4.0% |
| Margaux Cowles | 6.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 14.6% | 16.3% | 16.4% | 12.2% | 3.2% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 33.6% | 25.8% | 16.4% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Jensen | 20.8% | 21.9% | 20.9% | 15.3% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Riley | 6.6% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 17.3% | 16.6% | 12.6% | 4.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 14.0% | 15.6% | 25.5% | 12.6% |
| Jamie Lynch | 1.3% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 12.1% | 69.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.