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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.22+2.40vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+1.37vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.46+1.84vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.75-1.48vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University1.08+0.33vs Predicted
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6Hampton University0.61+0.29vs Predicted
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7Fordham University0.99-1.30vs Predicted
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8George Washington University-0.77+0.19vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.15-3.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.4U. S. Naval Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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3.37St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
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4.84University of Pennsylvania1.460.1%1st Place
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2.52U. S. Naval Academy2.750.3%1st Place
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5.33Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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6.29Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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5.7Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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8.19George Washington University-0.770.0%1st Place
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5.36Old Dominion University1.150.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Kelly | 19.9% | 18.2% | 17.4% | 16.5% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Jensen | 16.9% | 20.7% | 19.7% | 15.4% | 13.7% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Ian Fox | 8.2% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 14.5% | 16.7% | 14.7% | 9.5% | 2.1% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 33.2% | 24.5% | 18.1% | 12.5% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.5% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 14.4% | 12.0% | 16.9% | 15.0% | 5.2% |
| Tyler Brown | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 18.5% | 25.8% | 11.7% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 16.4% | 17.4% | 19.0% | 6.0% |
| Jamie Lynch | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 12.9% | 69.5% |
| Sam Riley | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 17.5% | 16.7% | 14.2% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.