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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+2.22vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.46+2.99vs Predicted
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3Hampton University0.61+3.35vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.22-0.64vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University1.08+0.36vs Predicted
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6Fordham University0.99-0.40vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.75-4.39vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.15-2.65vs Predicted
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9George Washington University-0.77-0.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.22St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
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4.99University of Pennsylvania1.460.1%1st Place
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6.35Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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3.36U. S. Naval Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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5.36Christopher Newport University1.080.1%1st Place
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5.6Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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2.61U. S. Naval Academy2.750.3%1st Place
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5.35Old Dominion University1.150.1%1st Place
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8.15George Washington University-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Jensen | 20.7% | 20.1% | 19.2% | 15.1% | 12.3% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ian Fox | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 15.3% | 16.4% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 2.5% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 17.7% | 26.6% | 12.5% |
| Tanner Kelly | 18.5% | 21.0% | 17.1% | 17.0% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Joshua Bendura | 5.6% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 15.9% | 15.3% | 6.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 16.7% | 21.0% | 15.5% | 5.4% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 31.2% | 24.8% | 17.7% | 12.0% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Riley | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 16.4% | 16.8% | 15.5% | 4.3% |
| Jamie Lynch | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 12.7% | 68.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.