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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.82+3.92vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43+4.15vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.03+4.64vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+4.08vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.75+3.63vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.39+0.43vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.85+1.41vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.30-1.41vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.43-2.85vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.46-0.19vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.03-3.36vs Predicted
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12Cornell University-0.09-0.54vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.75-4.39vs Predicted
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14Cornell University0.63-5.06vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.92-1.19vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.46-3.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92Cornell University1.820.2%1st Place
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6.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.1%1st Place
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7.64Cornell University1.030.1%1st Place
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8.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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8.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.750.0%1st Place
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6.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.390.1%1st Place
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8.41Cornell University0.850.1%1st Place
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6.59Cornell University1.300.1%1st Place
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6.15Cornell University1.430.1%1st Place
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9.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.460.0%1st Place
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7.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.030.1%1st Place
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11.46Cornell University-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.750.0%1st Place
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8.94Cornell University0.630.0%1st Place
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13.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.920.0%1st Place
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12.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilda Dondona | 15.3% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 9.7% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Boris Bialer | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Brook Wood | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Sam Carson | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 1.5% |
| Finn Palermo | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Maya Conway | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Pilar Cundey | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Ava Gustafson | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Simona Esposito | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 3.7% |
| Dante Garcia | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Sara Ortiz Vey | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 14.8% |
| Simon Hammarlund | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| Marcus Greco | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Jack Carter | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 18.2% | 46.6% |
| Tucker Rose | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 12.9% | 22.3% | 24.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.