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📊 Prediction Accuracy
12.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.43+5.14vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.82+2.97vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.39+3.33vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.03+3.74vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.46+4.70vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.63+3.12vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.85+1.45vs Predicted
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8Cornell University-0.09+3.37vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.75-0.35vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.30-3.23vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-3.12vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.75-3.36vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.43-6.82vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.03-6.48vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.46-2.30vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.92-2.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.14Cornell University1.430.1%1st Place
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4.97Cornell University1.820.2%1st Place
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6.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.390.1%1st Place
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7.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.030.1%1st Place
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9.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.460.0%1st Place
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9.12Cornell University0.630.0%1st Place
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8.45Cornell University0.850.1%1st Place
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11.37Cornell University-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.750.1%1st Place
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6.77Cornell University1.300.1%1st Place
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7.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.1%1st Place
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8.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.750.1%1st Place
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6.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.430.1%1st Place
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7.52Cornell University1.030.1%1st Place
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12.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.460.0%1st Place
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13.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Gustafson | 9.4% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Gilda Dondona | 15.9% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Finn Palermo | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Dante Garcia | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Simona Esposito | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% |
| Marcus Greco | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
| Maya Conway | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 1.5% |
| Sara Ortiz Vey | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 16.5% | 12.2% |
| Sam Carson | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Pilar Cundey | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Brook Wood | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Simon Hammarlund | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 2.1% |
| Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Boris Bialer | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Tucker Rose | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 21.8% | 25.7% |
| Jack Carter | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 16.4% | 46.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.