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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University2.03+5.44vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.01+4.48vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.06+3.44vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53+7.04vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.92-0.80vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.39-2.95vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida1.86+0.05vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12-1.79vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.26-0.06vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.09-0.41vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.84-3.84vs Predicted
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12Tulane University1.57-3.80vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.09-0.35vs Predicted
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14Maine Maritime Academy-0.11-1.39vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.92-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.44Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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6.48Brown University2.010.1%1st Place
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6.44Roger Williams University2.060.1%1st Place
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11.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.0%1st Place
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4.2Yale University2.920.2%1st Place
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3.05Stanford University3.390.3%1st Place
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7.05University of South Florida1.860.1%1st Place
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6.21Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.1%1st Place
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8.94George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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9.59University of Hawaii1.090.0%1st Place
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7.16University of Rhode Island1.840.1%1st Place
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8.2Tulane University1.570.0%1st Place
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12.65Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.61Maine Maritime Academy-0.110.0%1st Place
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9.93Connecticut College0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eva Ermlich | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Katherine McNamara | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Meagher | 7.2% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Odell | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 17.6% | 15.0% | 14.2% |
| Emma Cowles | 17.1% | 15.2% | 14.8% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 26.7% | 21.7% | 18.6% | 13.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 2.2% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 4.8% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Lucy Spearman | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Carly Mraz | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 22.4% | 35.8% |
| Jane Marvin | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 21.6% | 34.4% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.