Race 3A

stu-nelson-connecticut

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Vanessa Lahrkamp 28.5% 22.7% 15.9% 11.4% 8.9% 4.6% 4.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Emma Cowles 18.7% 16.7% 15.0% 15.0% 9.4% 8.0% 6.6% 4.4% 2.6% 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Carly Mraz 0.9% 1.3% 1.8% 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 2.1% 2.5% 4.1% 4.0% 6.0% 7.2% 12.0% 18.3% 36.1%
Kay Brunsvold 5.8% 6.4% 7.2% 8.9% 8.0% 10.1% 8.8% 8.8% 8.0% 8.1% 7.7% 5.8% 4.0% 1.7% 0.7%
Brooke Schmelz 8.2% 8.2% 8.8% 8.3% 9.4% 9.7% 10.4% 10.3% 7.6% 6.7% 6.1% 2.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.2%
Lucy Meagher 5.5% 8.1% 7.9% 9.4% 9.6% 10.3% 10.0% 9.6% 9.4% 7.2% 6.6% 4.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Eva Ermlich 8.2% 6.5% 8.6% 9.4% 9.6% 9.0% 10.2% 9.3% 7.8% 6.9% 5.7% 4.5% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4%
Katherine McNamara 6.4% 7.8% 9.5% 8.0% 7.5% 10.2% 9.0% 10.0% 8.5% 7.2% 6.8% 4.9% 2.3% 1.5% 0.4%
Caroline Odell 1.0% 2.1% 1.1% 2.6% 3.2% 2.4% 3.9% 4.5% 6.1% 7.7% 8.7% 10.8% 16.1% 18.0% 11.8%
Kytalin Hendrickson 4.9% 5.2% 7.7% 8.4% 9.4% 8.0% 9.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.6% 7.2% 5.6% 4.7% 2.5% 0.3%
Vivian Bonsager 2.4% 2.8% 3.9% 3.6% 5.1% 5.3% 5.7% 6.6% 7.7% 9.8% 8.6% 12.2% 10.6% 10.6% 5.1%
Izzy Wu-Karr 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 2.3% 4.3% 4.8% 5.4% 6.0% 7.9% 6.0% 10.8% 13.8% 13.3% 12.6% 6.5%
Lucy Spearman 4.0% 5.1% 4.9% 5.6% 6.7% 7.4% 6.3% 8.9% 9.7% 9.4% 11.2% 8.3% 7.0% 4.6% 0.9%
Avery Canavan 2.3% 4.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 6.9% 6.0% 6.3% 8.1% 10.5% 9.6% 12.1% 9.8% 6.8% 2.3%
Jane Marvin 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 2.2% 1.9% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% 5.4% 3.7% 7.8% 12.5% 20.8% 35.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.