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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy3.79+3.16vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.98+1.68vs Predicted
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3Stanford University4.21+0.27vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis2.13+4.68vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley2.60+2.36vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.85+0.67vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.08-1.02vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.50-3.08vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay2.30-0.87vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis0.12+3.33vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay1.35-0.17vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz1.87-2.41vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-2.77vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley1.57-3.77vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay0.32-2.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.16California Poly Maritime Academy3.790.2%1st Place
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3.68Stanford University3.980.2%1st Place
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3.27Stanford University4.210.2%1st Place
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8.68University of California at Davis2.130.0%1st Place
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7.36University of California at Berkeley2.600.1%1st Place
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6.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.2.850.0%1st Place
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5.98Stanford University3.080.1%1st Place
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4.92Stanford University3.500.1%1st Place
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8.13California State University Monterey Bay2.300.0%1st Place
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13.33University of California at Davis0.120.0%1st Place
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10.83California State University Monterey Bay1.350.0%1st Place
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9.59University of California at Santa Cruz1.870.0%1st Place
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10.23Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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10.23University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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12.94California State University Monterey Bay0.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Kelly | 17.4% | 12.8% | 16.6% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Doane | 18.6% | 21.4% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Hatton | 22.8% | 19.6% | 18.3% | 14.2% | 11.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lazzaro | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Cody Shevitz | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Soper | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Eliza Richartz | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nick Dugdale | 11.5% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Schoch | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Hagerman | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 22.3% | 45.3% |
| Kellsy Panno | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 16.6% | 7.0% |
| Mickail Murawski | 2.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 6.9% | 1.7% |
| Erik Lund | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 15.4% | 10.2% | 4.3% |
| Aubrey Toole | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 16.1% | 10.5% | 3.7% |
| Janet Rumsey | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 25.4% | 35.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.