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📊 Prediction Accuracy
72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Williams College-0.60+3.51vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont0.58+0.41vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont-0.28+0.96vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College-0.26-0.08vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont-0.55-0.64vs Predicted
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6Amherst College-2.69+2.46vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-1.21-1.47vs Predicted
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8Middlebury College-1.93-1.00vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire-2.61-0.65vs Predicted
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10Middlebury College-1.88-3.06vs Predicted
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11Amherst College-4.72-0.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51Williams College-0.600.1%1st Place
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2.41University of Vermont0.580.4%1st Place
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3.96University of Vermont-0.280.1%1st Place
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3.92Middlebury College-0.260.1%1st Place
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4.36University of Vermont-0.550.1%1st Place
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8.46Amherst College-2.690.0%1st Place
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5.53University of New Hampshire-1.210.1%1st Place
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7.0Middlebury College-1.930.0%1st Place
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8.35University of New Hampshire-2.610.0%1st Place
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6.94Middlebury College-1.880.0%1st Place
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10.55Amherst College-4.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Nusbaum | 9.0% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 15.3% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Amelotte | 35.8% | 24.3% | 19.0% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ocean Smith | 13.8% | 15.4% | 15.8% | 15.3% | 15.1% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Penelope Weekes | 13.9% | 15.4% | 16.2% | 16.1% | 15.4% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Petrush | 10.8% | 14.6% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Rufus Fender-Reid | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 21.5% | 33.4% | 8.2% |
| Ian Peterson | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 12.9% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 0.2% |
| Aengus Onken | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 15.2% | 18.9% | 18.3% | 12.4% | 0.9% |
| Devon Valenta | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 22.1% | 29.2% | 9.3% |
| Kate Adams | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 15.9% | 17.7% | 19.1% | 10.5% | 1.3% |
| Yunwen Xu | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 10.0% | 80.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.