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📊 Prediction Accuracy
72.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont-0.28+2.75vs Predicted
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2Middlebury College-0.26+1.75vs Predicted
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3Williams College-0.60+1.42vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.58-1.60vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont-0.55-0.80vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College-1.88+0.65vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-2.61+0.88vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-1.21-2.56vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College-1.93-2.22vs Predicted
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10Amherst College-4.72-0.28vs Predicted
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11Amherst College-4.72-1.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75University of Vermont-0.280.2%1st Place
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3.75Middlebury College-0.260.1%1st Place
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4.42Williams College-0.600.1%1st Place
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2.4University of Vermont0.580.3%1st Place
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4.2University of Vermont-0.550.1%1st Place
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6.65Middlebury College-1.880.0%1st Place
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7.88University of New Hampshire-2.610.0%1st Place
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5.44University of New Hampshire-1.210.1%1st Place
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6.78Middlebury College-1.930.0%1st Place
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9.72Amherst College-4.720.0%1st Place
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9.72Amherst College-4.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocean Smith | 16.3% | 15.9% | 16.7% | 15.6% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Penelope Weekes | 14.1% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 15.9% | 14.7% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Felix Nusbaum | 10.6% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 15.9% | 15.7% | 16.3% | 11.6% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Amelotte | 33.3% | 27.8% | 18.3% | 11.4% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Petrush | 12.1% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 17.0% | 15.1% | 13.8% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kate Adams | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 19.0% | 23.4% | 19.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Devon Valenta | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 11.6% | 22.0% | 41.6% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Peterson | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 16.5% | 16.8% | 13.7% | 6.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aengus Onken | 2.5% | 2.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 23.4% | 20.8% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Yunwen Xu | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 7.4% | 86.3% | 0.0% |
| Yunwen Xu | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 7.4% | 86.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.